Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is in bit of a funny place around about now. Trials of MaaS continue, certainly here in the UK with trials taking place in areas such as the Solent and in Scotland. But how is the idea faring now? COVID-19 certainly seemed to take the wind out of the sails of MaaS, and the idea along with shared transport seems to be in the doldrums currently.
But its really, really hard to get a handle on what is happening now without understanding quite how hard MaaS was hit by COVID-19. For an industry struggling with profitability prior to COVID-19, to have a huge drop in total travel demand nearly killed the industry entirely. In the immediate aftermath of such shutdowns, many operators of MaaS services and shared vehicle services offered assistance to essential workers who were required to continue travelling despite restrictions on travel for others. Uber Medics was an example of this.
Right at the height of COVID-19, David Hensher proposed two seperate visions of how MaaS could emerge, which are quoted in full below. I wonder whether this is a case of the future being a bit of both, and what this means for MaaS and MaaS operators. There are wider challenges facing the transport industry in terms of reduced travel on some modes, especially public transport, that make the resale of tickets (a key MaaS revenue stream) increasingly challenging. The future of MaaS as a commercial proposition is tied to the future of other modes.
Scenario 1: Travel will return to the pre-Covid-19 normal within a few months, with public transport, ride share and private car use showing very similar levels of use, crowding and congestion as before. Working from home will have a limited impact. The rationale is that, although the situation is somewhat fluid and the likely response is very uncertain, with Australia’s success compared to other countries in minimising exposure and transmission (“flattening the curve”), there is a real possibility that normality might return quicker, with perceptions of risk dissipating at a fast rate. Habit persistence is also a significant trait of human beings. Crowds, described as heaving, at shopping precincts on Mother’s day (10 May 2020) in Melbourne and Sydney, despite social distancing requirements in place, highlights this outcome.
Scenario 2: One of the most important policy levers now available, in contrast to pre-Covid 19, is the effectiveness and growing acceptance of working from home (WFH). We have never had a real experiment of what might happen to the transport network in the presence of a growing interest in WFH. One of Australia’s leading banks, the National Australia Bank (NAB), for example, is reporting a 15% increase in productivity (associated with WFH) since travel restrictions. This evidence, and growing anecdotal evidence together with the findings from a National Survey, suggest the possibility of a noticeable shift to WFH and consequent changes in commuting (and non-commuting) travel demand. WFH will be encouraged all the while offices are required to practice social distancing and hence have to stagger working hours for staff, including the possibility of less days in the main office and the balance as WFH. Firms will be interested, as they can save on office space in the longer term (although NAB have just invested in a huge building or buildings at Redfern near the City of Sydney).
I wonder, therefore, whether MaaS as a commercial proposition needs a significant rethink. To put my tuppence worth, without a substantial resurgence of the use of public transport in a profitable way, I struggle to see how the pure version of MaaS will be possible without significant subsidy from the public sector. Or maybe, some more radical vision of the future of MaaS is out there, and we just don’t know it yet.