Breaking Down the 2015 TfL Fares Increase

After a slightly longer wait than is typical, this morning the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, announced the fares levels that will apply to TfL services and National Rail services within the TfL zonal area from 2 January 2015. Full details of TfL fare and season ticket prices are in the Mayoral Decision document.

For the first time the TfL briefing to the Mayor has also been published. This sets out in some detail the reasoning for the new structure of daily PAYG caps to meet the Mayor’s objective of providing more affordable fares for part time workers.

TfL fares will increase, on average, by 2.5% which is equivalent to the RPI value for July 2014. The backdrop to the increase being pegged to inflation is announcements by the Chancellor and the Mayor in early September 2014. These set out that funding had been found to limit the scale of increase. Interestingly the Mayor has managed to secure funding from the Treasury. This was not the case with the 2014 increase which led to a somewhat public dispute over how London’s fare cap would be funded.

Travelcard prices are jointly set with National Rail meaning those prices typically increase by 2.3% – slightly less than the expected RP1% level of 2.5%. This is the result of the DfT changes to the ticket pricing rules.

The fares yield for TfL is expected to be £98m of which the Tube contributes £60m, Buses £31m and TfL Rail £7m.

The headline aspects of the 2015 TfL increases are :-

Buses and Trams

The PAYG / Contactless Oyster Bus and Tram Fare will increase by 5p to £1.50 (a 3.4% increase). There is no longer a cash fare for buses. The cash Tram fare increases by 10p to £2.50. The Daily Bus and Tram Cap is unchanged at £4.40. The 7 day Bus and Tram Pass rises by 80p to £21.00 (a 4.0% increase). To fund the freeze on the Daily Cap the single fare and 7 day tickets have increased by more than the average increase.

One significant change is the reappearance of the One Day Bus and Tram Pass. This has been brought back to fill a perceived gap in the ticket range since buses went cashless. The new ticket will be available in paper and disposable contactless Oyster formats and be priced at £5. This ticket can be sold from ticket machines and at Oyster ticket stops. Heathrow will have a 24 hours outlet thus tackling the problem of people potentially having no means to travel from the airport in the early hours. The price is still at quite a premium to the daily Oyster / Contactless bus and tram cap.

There is no change to the concessions for child travel on buses and trams.

Rail – London Underground, DLR, Overground and National Rail

PAYG fares for the TfL tariff, which applies to Tube, DLR, Overground and certain National Rail routes, increase by 10p for peak and off peak journeys that include Zone 1. Peak PAYG fares outside of Zone 1 also increase by 10p. Off peak non Z1 PAYG fares are unchanged.

The National Rail PAYG tariff sees increases for both peak and off peak travel. Fares increase by 10p for all zone combinations. Through Tube and Train PAYG fares into or through Zone 1 only increase by 10p peak and off peak as the operators have frozen the “add on” fare element for Zone 1. The Zones 1 to 6 Tube / Train peak fare rises to £7.60 which will also become the new peak “entry / exit charge” for PAYG for missed touch in or touch outs or exceeding maximum journey times. The off peak equivalent will increase by 10p to £5.20.

Tube cash fares that include Zone 1 increase by 10-30p making the Zone 1 cash fare £4.80 – more than twice the PAYG fare.

Child PAYG flat fares for rail travel in Zones 1 to 6 increase to 85p peak but are unchanged at 75p off peak.

One Day Tickets and PAYG Caps

This is the main element of the Fares Revision package that sees substantial change this year. To deliver the Mayor’s pledge on “part time” tickets TfL have removed the distinction between peak and off peak caps and changed the daily cap to be 1/5th (20%) of the 7 day Travelcard price.

This results in cuts in peak time daily travel costs for those travelling in zones 1-6. There are also new caps introduced for the Z13 and Z15 zone combinations. However there are quite severe consequences for those people who travel after 0930 Monday to Friday or at weekends. For those resident in zones 1-3 then their daily caps will be lower than at present. However those travelling to or from zones 4, 5 or 6 will see substantial increases. At present someone travelling from Zone 6 into the centre has a daily cap of £8.50 if using PAYG. From January 2015 this increases to £11.70.

The paper One Day Travelcard range is rationalised and some tickets are increased in price. The All Day Z12 One Day Travelcard is abolished meaning people wishing to use a paper ticket will have to purchase the Z14 version. This means a 33% increase (from £9 to £12). The Z14 All Day ticket increases by 5.4%. The off peak One Day Travelcard (only available in the Z16 and Z19) zone combinations increases by £3.10 to £12 for the Z16 ticket and by 30p to £12.80 for the Z19 version. The Child rate One Day off peak Travelcard increases in price from £3.60 to £6.00 (a mere 66% increase).

The justification for these changes are to make the overall package of changes to daily caps and off peak Travelcard costs “neutral” overall. There is an interesting passing remark in the Fares Briefing Paper to the Mayor that says that if the impact is not neutral then TfL will have to compensate the Train Operating Companies via a new, yet-to-be-created mechanism.

Overall you could be forgiven for thinking that TfL and the Train Operating Companies are very much minded to see the end of the One Day Travelcard product in paper form.

2015 Prices Anytime Off Peak
Paper Oyster Cap Paper Oyster Cap
Zones 1-2 Withdrawn £6.40 n/a £6.40
Zones 1-3 n/a £7.50 n/a £7.50
Zones 1-4 £12.00 £9.20 n/a £9.20
Zones 1-5 £17.00 £10.90 n/a £10.90
Zones 1-6 £17.00 £11.70 £12.00 £11.70
Zones 1-9 £21.50 £20.00 £12.80 £11.80

Season Tickets

Weekly Travelcard prices increase by around £0.70-£1.40 (approximately 2.3%) depending on the number of zones purchased. The standard multipliers of Monthly tickets being 3.84 times the weekly rate and Annual tickets being 40 times the weekly rate remain unchanged. Looking at the Briefing Paper to the Mayor it is clear that TfL would like to see adjustments to these multipliers and tried to effect such a change in 2009. The DfT turned down the request at the behest of the Train Operating Companies.

Some examples of new prices are set out below.

2015 Prices 7 Day Travelcard
Zones 1-2 £32.10
Zones 1-3 £37.70
Zones 1-4 £46.10
Zones 1-5 £54.70
Zones 1-6 £58.60
Zones 1-9 £83.40
Zones 2-3 £24.10
Zones 2-4 £26.60

Other Details

PAYG fares to National Rail stations outside of the Greater London area have not been announced as they are not set by TfL. There are no announcements this year about extension of Oyster Card coverage to other National Rail stations outside of the Greater London area. Those wishing to use Oyster PAYG to Gatwick Airport must therefore wait a while longer.

There are no changes to the time bands for peak PAYG charges – they remain as 0630 to 0930 and 1600 to 1900 Mondays to Fridays.

There are no changes to the time at which the off peak period starts for One Day Travelcards. It is still 0930 Monday to Friday and all day Saturdays, Sundays and Bank Holidays.

The off peak PAYG charging rule where off peak PAYG fares are charged on the TfL Tariff where people travel from Zones 2-6 into Zone 1 between 1600 and 1900 is now extended to National Rail services for the NR Tariff and also for Tube Train through tickets.

The Oyster Card deposit is unchanged at £5. An early return charge of £3 will be levied on people who buy a new Oyster Card and then return it less than 1 year after purchase. This is try to reduce the “churn” in Oyster Card sales and subsequent returns.

Charges for online applications for discounted Oyster Cards (Zip, 16+, 18+ and 60+) all increase in price although the duration of most cards also increases thus extending the time between renewals making the change “cost neutral”.

There is also a new half price under 16 temporary concession available “on the spot” for Oyster Card holders aged 16 or less. This is to cover a gap in the market for younger visitors who have not been able to arrange a Zip Card prior to arrival in London.

The PAYG discount for holders of Disabled Person Railcards will be extended to all day travel. This aligns with the discount for national rail travel.

Cycle Hire charges

There are no changes to charges for the use of the Barclays Cycle Hire Scheme.

Emirates Air Line fares

The Mayor has announced that adult cash fares for a single cross Thames journey on the Emirates Air Line will increase by 10p to £4.50. All other adult single fares, including the multi user discount, also increase by 10p. Child fares are unchanged.

156 comments

  1. The removal of and overcharging for paper travelcards is very unfair. Oyster, and even more so contactless, are very dangerous for occasional and poorer users.

    The high level of maximum fares eventually forced tfl to forgive the wealthier/most experienced oyster users!

  2. OK, in Germany they tend to celebrate Christmas more on Christmas Eve than Christmas Day but I didn’t know that when I expressed surprise when taken by car from a village to a station on Christmas Day a few years ago to meet a member of the extended family (it turned out he’d travelled a fair distance via the main line from Stuttgart and then connection to a local station). “Why are we going to the station; couldn’t he drive all the way to the village from Stuttgart?”, I asked originally. Equal surprise that I should ask the question because, so I was told, Christmas Day is one of the busiest days on the German railways, he’d come by train and they didn’t believe at all that most of our trains hadn’t run on that day for many a year.

  3. The Off-Peak Z1-6 Travelcard from here (Basingstoke) to London is now £28.10, which is a £4.60 add-on to the London Terminals Off-Peak Day Return. (A massive increase of 10p. Work out how that fits the new policy!) The add-on is still great value, especially if travelling in the evening peak. That £28.10 fare is 50p higher than last year’s fare. (1.8% increase).

  4. The ring of pain is such that a 1-6 cap of 11.70 is only a little cheaper weekdays than a travelcard from Twyford where you can still use the Network card with its minimum fare of £13

    Z6 to Oxford Circus, 15 miles or so, £11.70
    Twyford to Oxford Circus, 36 miles, £13

    I’m still bitter

  5. The FoI request linked to earlier was answered in December. Presumably it’s a daily average taken across a year, but it’s not entirely clear. Hopefully I’ve transcribed it correctly and managed to make it a little more legible.

    Cards capped per day

    Zones 1-2
    Peak……………13,900
    Off-peak…….34,800
    Weekend……45,200

    Zones 1-3
    Peak……………2,600
    Off-peak…….15,800
    Weekend……21,000

    Zones 1-4
    Peak……….…..4,700
    Off-peak…….12,900
    Weekend……14,200

    Zones 1-5
    Peak……………300
    Off-Peak…….8,500
    Weekend……9,700

    Zones 1-6
    Peak……….…..500
    Off-peak…….7,800
    Weekend……8,500

    Zones 1-9
    Peak……….…..0
    Off-peak…….3,900
    Weekend……1,900

    Total
    Peak……….…..22,000
    Off-peak…….83,800
    Weekend……100,500

  6. Big demonstration being planned at City Hall against the 35% increase in cost of zones 1-6 travelcard – please support

  7. Demo – yes please share the details.

    [The rest was snipped. Sorry, London Reconnections is not the place to complain about or advocate against fare increases. There are other means and channels for doing this. LR is for the discussion of London transport issues and their ramifications, not for advocating for or against policies. LBM]

  8. @ Paul F / LBM – as a small footnote it is worth noting that there have been many questions from Assembly Members about the fares increase. Last week, at the budget review meeting, the Mayor indicated he would “look again” at the impact on outer London. This week there are several more Mayor’s Questions about the fare changes and one which asks for the revenue impact / cost of reversing several individual aspects of the 2015 increase. The Commissioner recently robustly defended the fares changes but I think the political fall out from this has a fair distance still to roll. It plays very badly in the context of wider statements made late last year about a low increase and limiting the impact of fares increases on “hard pressed families” to coin a well worn phrase. Opposition politicians have spotted a weakness that they will exploit and I expect Tory Assembly Members are expressing their concern in private. Over to the Mayor!

  9. The results of my letter writing campaign: 2 out of 3 local councillors replied – not their department. MLA James Cleverly – detailed refutation of my argument. TfL both directly and by proxy through DfT – answering a question I’d not asked. Mayor of London via my MP (his brother) “200,000 people a day will benefit … 25,000 will lose”.

    I’m sure they don’t value my opinions, but at least they’ve weighed them.

  10. I feel for you, John B, but given how crowded the network is, if any fares ought to go up, it is those mostly used by people making discretionary leisure journeys – especially those in areas served by National Rail, where the effective subsidy of the off-peak £8.90 travelcard/£8.50 PAYG cap must have been pretty significant.

  11. if any fares ought to go up, it is those mostly used by people making discretionary leisure journeys

    From my contrarian position I suggest that the off-peak traveller is in fact subsidising the peak commuter. The assets are required to run the peak service and making any additional revenue off-peak increases the return on those assets.

    What really matters is how the peak is defined.

  12. Discussion about which fares (if any) “ought” to go up is bedevilled by a large fog of uncertainty about point of view. From the point of view of the traveller, it is generally someone else’s fares which “ought” to rise. From the point of view of politicians in charge, it is the fares of whoever will make the least fuss, or whoever will not reflect the fare rise by voting for someone else.

    There are economists’ arguments suggesting that the fare rises should be applied in such a way as to make the “market” have desirable effects (like shifting people’s travel patterns in such a way as to decrease overall overcrowding). But such arguments should be taken with a barrow-load of salt on account of the large number of externalities, and the fact that travel in London (or any city) is not an “ideal” market, and every fare is mainly composed of tax and subsidy, and it is rare to find two economists agreeing about anything.

  13. If you wanted to reduce overcrowding, then to deter discretionary leisure journeys at peak times, you should have retained the off-peak cap, but banned it during the weekday evening peak, bar inbound rail travel to Z1, where there is capacity. Don’t weaken the 9.30 threshold, and put up prices at weekends.

    As my quote, large raises for 25000 are providing small reductions for 8 times that number.

  14. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there was still some political headway for the new fares in Outer London. I’m not sure whether I’m late to this, but it appears that paper off-peak tickets have also been withdrawn in the London zones. However, just outside the London zones (which are priced by TOCs) off-peak returns still exist.

    This leads to some awkward fare anomalies. For example if you forgot your Oyster card off-peak at Orpington and ask for a paper return to Victoria you are likely to find an off-peak return from Dunton Green to London Terminals (£10.40) in the tray. A ticket with the actual station rather than one three stops further out costs another £3.20 for the anytime return. Obviously using Oyster is cheaper (either £7.40 or £9.70 depending on return time), but I’m sure that won’t stop people using examples like this as evidence of it being unfair.

    Is there a particularly good reason for pricing people away from paper tickets?

  15. @Anon
    “Is there a particularly good reason for pricing people away from paper tickets?”
    The cost of producing them, handling them, handling the cash, having vending machines and barriers that can read them (all those moving parts) ………………………………

  16. Is there a timescale for removing paper ticket machines from Underground stations? There is little incentive for National Rail stations.

  17. Off peak Orpington to Victoria should actually result in an off-peak day travelcard being offered, not an anytime return. Even though it’s still not cheaper than the Dunto Green point to point ticket.

    Paper off-peak returns within the zones were removed from the range with full Oysterisation on National Rail, quite a few years ago, it isn’t a new thing.

  18. Outer Londoners who pay for their journeys by Oyster pay as you go and contactless cards are to receive some respite from the decision to axe the off-peak daily cap.
    The 2015 fares package for Transport for London services included a reduction in the Oyster daily fares cap, a move intended to make travel more affordable for part-time and home workers.

    The revenue lost through the reduction is being recouped by abolishing the off-peak fares cap and increasing the costs of paper travelcards.

    As a result, some fares have increased by as much as 38%, although TfL claims only 25,000 people a day are paying more and says some would get a better deal by moving to Oyster and contactless payment.

    Responding to criticism from all parties on the London Assembly Mayor Boris Johnson agreed to reconsider axing the off-peak cap, although he last week rejected an amendment to his budget which would have reversed the hike.

    City Hall has announced that passengers travelling from Zones 4-6 two or more times a week will receive an automatic refund reducing their cap to £8.00 for zones 1-4 and £8.80 for zones 1-5 and 1-6. Monthly refunds will be paid from April and be backdated to include trips made from 2 January.

    Mayor Johnson, said: “I’ve delivered on my commitment to address the needs of flexible and part-time workers, with significant fare cuts for hundreds of thousands of hardworking Londoners.

    “This reduction was funded through revisions made to the fare package elsewhere and having assessed the full impact of these changes, I have asked Transport for London to make changes to the daily off peak caps which mean that all Londoners benefit. 

“A relatively small group of passengers in outer London who were disproportionally affected will be automatically refunded.

    “I believe this decision is in the interests of fairness and one which recognises the need to support all part-time workers, a vital part of our great city’s economy.”

    Commenting on the change, Labour’s London Assembly Budget Spokesperson John Biggs AM said: “Whilst Boris Johnson’s u-turn is welcome it shows how, even with this effectively his final Budget, Boris has failed to show he cares about the challenges facing Londoners.

    “Instead of putting forward policies to tackle rising fares, rising violent crime and the capital’s housing crisis, we’ve got more of the same with no major new projects or policies. It’s the clearest sign yet that Boris Johnson has effectively checked out of City Hall and is content to leave a legacy of failures for his successor.”

  19. So that just leaves the occasional user, or weekend user who gets network card discounts on paper travelcards disadvantaged. Hang on – that’s me.

    Since the changes have come in I’ve started walking from S London termini to avoid the tube/bus. And every weekend trip involves mental convulsions as to whether oyster or discounted travelcard is cheaper.

    Looking at what’d I’ve paid compared with last year with weekday £8.50 caps and £5.90 weekend travelcards

    Orpington to Royal Oak, weekend, travelcard £7.90, £2 more
    2*Orpington to Waterloo, walk to Chancery Lane, weekday £7.40, £1.50 less
    Orpington to South Ken, weekday offpeak, £10.20, £1.70 more
    Orpington to Hampton Court via Waterloo, Saturday, £7.40 oyster, £1.50 more
    Orpington to South Ken via CHX Saturday, £7.90 travelcard, £2 more
    Orpington to Victoria, walk to South Ken, Sunday, £7.40 (ticket machine queue precluded buying travelcard, walked to spite TfL), £2 more

    With the new change I’ll have to guess for each trip whether I’ll have a second qualifying trip soon after. My brain will ache.

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