HLOS Highlights Part 2: Final Points


Given the extensive discussion of the HLOS that has already now developed elsewhere in the comments on this site, there is perhaps little left to add to the topic here – instead,those looking for a detailed breakdown of the HLOS would do well to read the comments on our previous piece. That said, there are a few things that are still worth drawing attention to, some of which have not really been covered in the discussions already featured here, and some which it might have been possible to miss.

Firstly, within its appendices the HLOS contains a rather nice table that indicates the expected demand level changes at the London termini in the peaks during CP5.

Given that this will likey play a key role in the development of the network over the coming years, it is nice to be able to see the expected changes all in one place. It also serves quite nicely to demonstrate the impact that Crossrail’s opening is anticipated to have on a number of stations – notably Paddington and Liverpool Street. Unfortunately (and indeed as was correctly pointed out on our recent look at Farringdon), Farringdon is not strictly speaking a Terminus, and thus doesn’t feature on the list.

The full table is replicated below. For those unfamiliar with Network Rail’s terms, “peak three hours” covers all services timetabled to arrive on a weekday morning between 0700 and 0959. The “high peak hour” specifically refers to timetabled services arriving between 0800 and 0859. The morning rush hour is used for calculations such as these because it generally has higher passenger numbers than the evening rush hour.

Additionally, we’ve highlighted expected decreases in red to make them easier to spot.

Peak Three Hours High-Peak Hour
London Forecast demand in 013/14 Extra demand to be met by 2018/19 Forecast demand in 2013/14 Extra demand to be met by 2018/19
0 8,000 0 3,800
Through via Elephant & Castle
21,100 -8,600 10,800 -5,000
Euston 24,300 2,400 11,500 1,200
Fenchurch St 24,100 2,000 13,000 900
Kings Cross 17,300 -4,600 8,000 -3,300
Liverpool St
66,800 -4,400 34,600 -2,300
Liverpool St
0 33,000 0 16,500
London Bridge
Kent routes
92,300 13,600 48,700 8,000
London Bridge
Sussex routes
45,300 24,600 23,500 11,800
Marylebone 11,400 1,000 5,100 500
Moorgate 13,200 -2,300 7,400 -1,100
26,300 -2,400 12,100 -1,900
0 23,600 0 11,800
9,600 400 4,300 200
St. Pancras
19,700 15,400 10,500 6,500
20,100 900 10,100 400
47,700 6,700 23,200 1,300
Waterloo 100,100 9,700 45,700 4,900
London Total 539,300 119,000 268,500 54,200

In addition to the table above, and something that was briefly mentioned within the discussion on the HLOS but which deserves to be highlighted here, is the inclusion of Southampton – Basingstoke within the newly proposed “Electric Spine” stretching across the country. At first glance, this may not seem worthy of much attention as this section of line is already electrified. It is, however, currently 3rd Rail – and thus in CP5 it will be converted to OHLE instead.

The inclusion of this section of line makes sense, but of real interest is the suggestion within the HLOS that his should be seen as a test case for far greater things in CP6 and beyond:

The change at renewal of Southampton to Basingstoke – the southern section of the Electric Spine – to the modern overhead AC system will also test the business case for the wider conversion of the third rail electric network south of the Thames to overhead line equipment.

Recounting the possibilities that OHLE south of the river would open up in South London would make this a very wordy article indeed, but the benefits should be clear. There is also another stretch of line (albeit a short stretch) south of the Thames that will be receiving the OHLE treatment – The scope of the GWML electrification has been expanded to include Slough – Windsor/ Maidenhead – Marlow/ Twyford – Henley-on-Thames.

Finally, reading (largely) between the lines it appears that Waterloo may see some major work during CP5. The full form that might take remains to be defined, but it appears that we will at least see some platform lengthening and work on the station throat. Given the extensive works that have (or will) take place at other London terminals, and indeed the recent mezzanine work at Waterloo itself, it will be interesting to see what plans ultimately emerge for the station.

Written by John Bull
John Bull is the Editor of London Reconnections. A transport journalist and historian, his writing often focuses on the political or strategic challenges facing London's transport network and beyond.